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< Back Ms Munira Mustaffa Ms. Munira Mustaffa founded Chasseur Group and serves as its Executive Director and principal consultant. In addition, she is a non-resident fellow at New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, a Washington, DC-based independent policy think tank, and a fellow at Verve Research, an independent research collective focusing on the relationship between the military and society in the context of political development in the Indo-Pacific region. Since 2014, she has worked professionally in the security field, including the corporate, public, and military sectors. Her work on terrorism, extremism, militancy in Southeast Asia, and cyber warfare has been published by the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, NATO's Strategic Communications Center of Excellence (STRATCOMCOE), and the Global Network on Extremism and Technology (GNET). She obtained a Master’s degree from University College London (UCL). Publications “Social Media Discourse in Malaysia on the Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Rationales for Pro-Russia Sentiments”, ISEAS Perspective, 22 Apr 2022, https://www.iseas.edu.sg/articles-commentaries/iseas-perspective/2022-41-social-media-discourse-in-malaysia- on-the-russia-ukraine-conflict-rationales-for-pro-russia-sentiments-by-benjamin-y-h-loh-and-munira-mustaffa/ “Radical Right Activities in Nusantara’s Digital Landscape: A Snapshot”, Global Network on Extremism & Technology (GNET), 19 Apr 2022, https://gnet-research.org/2022/04/19/radical-right-activities-in-nusantaras-digital-landscape-a-snapshot/. “The Kadyrovtsy: Putin’s Force Multiplier or Propaganda Tool?”, New Lines Institute for Strategy & Policy, 7 Mar 2022, https://newlinesinstitute.org/russia/the-kadyrovtsy-putins-force-multiplier-or-propaganda-tool/.

< Back Ms Tinchu James Tinchu P. James an Assistant Professor of Political Science at St. Thomas College, Pala. She holds an MPhil from Kerala University, and serves as a Member of the UG and PG Boards of Studies, M G Universit, Kerala, and the Director of the St. Thomas College Women’s Forum. Publications

< Back Brendon J Cannon Brendon J. Cannon is an Assistant Professor of International Security at Khalifa University, Abu Dhabi, UAE. He earned a PhD in Political Science from the University of Utah, USA (2009). His research is at the nexus of international relations, security studies, and geopolitics. He has published on topics related to regional security and geopolitics, the arms industry, and shifting distributions of power across the Indo-Pacific. Cannon’s articles appear in Defence Studies, Small Wars and Insurgencies, Asian Security and Third World Quarterly. His new book, edited with Kei Hakata, is Indo-Pacific Strategies: Navigating Geopolitics at the Dawn of a New Age (Routledge). Publications

< Back Ms Moitrayee Sengupta Moitrayee Sengupta has served as a Research Assistant at the Department of International Relations, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, working on a project titled ‘Disaster-induced Displacement: Developing a Normative Framework and International Policy’. She has also worked as a Research Intern for Dr Bishawjit Mallick — Chair of Environmental Development and Risk Management, Technische Universität Dresden, Germany, focusing on ‘Historical Grounding of Migration Decisions of the People at Environmental Risks’, funded by the European Union. She holds an MPhil from Jadavpur University, Kolkata. Publications A Triple Crisis in the Indian Sundarbans https://www.sylff.org/news_voices/28796/

< Back Dr Dhanasree Jayaram Dhanasree Jayaram is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Geopolitics & International Relations (DGIR), Manipal Academy of Higher Education. She received her PhD from the Department in 2018, on the topic, ‘Military Dimensions of Environmental Security: An Indian Perspective’. She is also the Coordinator for the Centre for Climate Studies, MAHE, and a Project Associate at the Manipal Advanced Research Group Website Project. She is a former Research Associate at the Centre for Air Power Studies, a Pre-doctoral Fellow at the University of Lausanne, Switzerland, and a Post-doctoral Fellow at the Leiden University Institute for Area Studies. Her most recent book, is titled ‘Climate Diplomacy and Emerging Economies: India as a Case Study’, published by Routledge, London. Publications China’s Geoengineering Push Dangerous for the Region: https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news/chinas-geoengineering-push-dangerous-region Kerala Should get its ‘Sustainable’ Priorities Right: https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/opinion/kerala-get-sustainable-priorities-right

< Back Dr Ladhu Choudhary Ladhu Ram Choudhary is an Assistant Professor, at the Department of Political Science, University of Rajasthan. He holds a PhD from Jawaharlal Nehru University, with a thesis titled, ‘Explaining Jointness in Military Affairs: A Case Study of the Indian Military’, and has also served as a Teaching Assistant, for national security and international relations. His research areas include International Relations Theory, Geopolitics, Contemporary Diplomacy, Nuclear Politics, Indian Foreign and Security Policy, and Military strategy. He is an Associate Member at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Analyses, New Delhi, and the British International Studies Association, UK. He has published several research articles on themes such as India-Pakistan relations, nuclear track-II diplomacy, and disarmament, in journals including South Asian Journal of Diplomacy and Political Science Review. The most recent book co-authored by him is titled, ‘Indian Foreign Policy: Identity and Issues’, published by Rawat Publications. Publications SAV Review: What Drives Doctrinal Change in the Indian Army? https://southasianvoices.org/explaining-transformation-indian-army-doctrine/ Review: Rescuing the Debate on Indian Soft Power from Joseph Nye https://thewire.in/books/review-rescuing-indias-soft-power-from-joseph-nyes-conceptualisation

< Back Dr A. Subramanyam Raju A Subramanyam Raju is the current Dean (International Relations) at Pondicherry University, and the Coordinator of the UGC Centre for Maritime Studies, and the Study in India program. He is also an Honorary Adjunct Fellow at the National Maritime Foundation, New Delhi. He holds a PhD from the Department of Political Science, University of Hyderabad. He was the recipient of 2003 Mahbub Ul Haq Award conferred by Regional Centre for Strategic Studies (RCSS), Colombo and the Scholar of Peace Award, by WISCOMP, New Delhi. He has authored and edited numerous books for publishers such as Routledge and Studera Press, and his upcoming titles include ‘French Presence in the Western Indian Ocean Region’ for the Indian Council for World Affairs, and the Routledge Handbook of South Asia: Political, Economic and Strategic Transition. Publications

< Back Ms Irene Chan Irene Chan is a Associate Research Fellow with the China Programme in the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). Publications

f86b0e96-6885-401b-a143-b37392069f1c < All op-eds The Impact of A Probable Iran-Israel War On The Maritime Security of the Eastern Mediterranean, Red Sea and The Persian Gulf Region- Part 2 Dr Shelly Johny V. The Persian Gulf region, more specifically the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz are maritime areas on the Iranian coast over which Iran has considerable naval influence. The Strait of Hormuz is around 155 kilometres long and 34 kilometres wide at its narrowest point. The strait’s shipping channels that can handle supertankers are only 2 nautical miles wide, forcing ships to pass through Iranian and Omani territorial waters. There are limited options to bypass the Strait and only Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pipelines that can ship crude oil beyond the Gulf . This maritime region can turn out to be important in a future Iran-Israel war. About a fifth of the volume of the world’s total oil consumption passes through the Strait daily. OPEC members Saudi Arabia, Iran, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq export most of their crude via the Strait. Qatar, the world’s largest liquefied gas (LNG) exporter, sends almost all of its LNG through the Strait. The U.S. Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain, is tasked with protecting commercial shipping in the area . If Iran and Israel begin bombing and targeting each other using aircraft and missiles, Iran might choose to extend the conflict to areas adjacent to the Hormuz Strait to internationalise the conflict and put pressure on Israel. Iran’s attempt to conduct a more robust campaign of targeting international shipping in the event of a conflict with Israel is fraught with several challenges, unlike the situation in the 1980s. These new challenges reflect the changes that have taken place both at the regional level and in the international scenario. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian on Oct.18 called on Muslim countries to impose an oil embargo and other sanctions on Israel, but OPEC sources dismissed such a scenario. The U.S. Energy Administration has estimated that 76% of the crude oil and condensate that passed through the strait in 2018 went to Asian markets. China, India, Japan, South Korea, and Singapore were the main destinations accounting for 65 per cent of all oil shipped through the strait that year. In contrast, the U.S. imported around 1.4 mbpd of oil through the Strait of Hormuz in 2018, accounting for about 18 percent of total U.S. crude oil imports . The oil imported by China from Saudi Arabia saw an increase of 7% in the first half of 2023 in comparison to 2022 . This is precisely why China has a strong interest in preserving security in region, an example of which is its mediation which led to the Saudi-Iran reconciliation in March 2023. West Asia is also a key node for China’s Belt and Road Initiative. China has cultivated ties with all the GCC members as part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), further expanding from areas like oil and gas exports, which were the foundations of the relationship, to sectors such as infrastructure, finance, telecommunications, renewable energy, and nuclear energy. China has also invested billions of dollars in ports in the region. Therefore, in any maritime campaign in the region, Iran would be careful to not target Chinese interests because of the ties between the two sides. However, it would be increasingly difficult if the intensity of the conflict increased. Experts are divided on what could be the outcome of a clash between the U.S. and Iran in this maritime theatre. From the outcome of Operation Praying Mantis, it could be deduced that the regular Iranian Navy and the IRGC Navy (IRGCN) could be destroyed in a couple of days by the U.S. Navy, restoring commercial maritime traffic in the Hormuz Strait. But Iran has learned lessons from the Tanker War and now has increased its asymmetric capabilities in the form of numerous mines and speed boats to block the strait. While Iran might not be able to hold on for long in the face of a U.S. naval attack it could cause enough havoc in the global energy markets and also cause a global diplomatic crisis because of the international relevance of the Hormuz Strait. The third important maritime theatre is the Red Sea region and especially the Bab al-Mandab Strait that connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden. The Suez Canal is also important as it connects the Mediterranean Sea with the Red Sea and is the fastest and most direct maritime trade link between Asia and Europe. The canal is significant route for energy, commodities, consumer goods and componentry from Asia, including East Asia, Southeast Asia and West Asia, to Europe . Around 12% of international freight traffic of all types (oil, raw materials, containers, etc.) passes through the Suez Canal including 30% of all global container traffic. Nearly 5% of world’s crude oil and 8% of LNG seaborne flows transit the Suez Canal. Due to the Russia-Ukraine War, there has been a rise in oil tanker and LNG carrier transit northbound and southbound through the Suez Canal. There has been a record increase in the number of ships transiting the Suez Canal in 2022 . While Iran does not geographically have a presence in the region it wields influence through its proxy Ansar Allah more popularly known as the Houthis or the Zaydi Shia militia from the highlands of the former North Yemen. Israel has naval access to this region through the small coastline that it has in the Red Sea. The region has therefore witnessed instances of the clandestine war between Iran and Israel. The Houthis are a loosely organised group of Shia tribal militias unlike Hezbollah which is a tight-knit organisation. The relationship between the Houthis and Iran is complicated. While there is ideological affinity between the two sides, it is not possible to say that the Houthis are an outright tool of Iran. The Houthis might prioritise their local interests in Yemen rather than actively try to become a part of the ‘Axis of Resistance’ that Iran has built in West Asia if a point comes where the Houthis have to choose between the two If tensions between Iran and Israel rise, the Iranians might give better capabilities to the Houthis in order to make them able to target Israel. For being effectively capable of targeting Israel, the Houthis must be capable of launching munitions to reach targets more than 1800 kms away. The Houthis might launch a complex operation firing both cruise missiles and armed UAVs which can increase chances of more effectively targeting Israel and cause more damage . The ballistic missile capabilities of the Houthis are limited. Iran might provide more advanced ballistic missile capabilities like the advanced Shihab missiles that have considerably longer ranges. They could provide access to the IRGC to launch attacks from Houthi territory. Houthis could launch attacks on maritime attacks to disrupt flow of goods through the Suez Canal, interrupt global oil supply and raise maritime insurance premiums. But chances for success are less as protecting freedom of navigation is the central aim of naval task forces operating in the region including US, French, Russian, Chinese and Egyptian Houthis can try different methods like approaching and firing anti-tank rockets, attaching limpet mines to the hull of ships and also using ‘suicide ships’ which are explosive and can be operated remotely by using speed boats to attack simultaneously from multiple directions. The latter tactic is basically employing swarm tactics replicating what the IRGCN have trained for areas close to the Hormuz Strait . In fact, the areas near the Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab straits can be locations where Iran might try to employing naval swarming on a large scale only seen employed by insurgents in land combat. These are the methods preferred by Iran as it does not have the access that the Egyptian Navy had in this maritime theatre in 1973 for enforcing the blockade of Israel at the Bab al-Mandab Strait. This is because Egypt is a Red Sea littoral state with a long coastline. Egypt back then also did not have to face the U.S. Navy. While most attention is usually focused on land combat and missile capabilities in any discussion on the Iran-Israel rivalry, a less studied aspect is the maritime domain which perhaps is more important for the Indo-Pacific because of the consequences of a conflict for international trade. Previous Next LATEST OP-EDS Dr Dhanasree Jayaram Intersectionality As The Key To Indo-Pacific Climate Action The Indo-Pacific is a dynamic region that faces a multitude of climate vulnerabilities. These climate vulnerabilities intermingle with the region’s social, economic, ecological, political, and cultural fault lines, thereby exacerbating the systemic crisis that the region’s populations are currently facing and will be facing in the future. Applying an intersectional framework is critical for developing a comprehensive understanding of varying vulnerabilities and capacities (that influence the agency of those affected) across societies. Read More Purvaja Modak 2024: Brazil’s G20 Year While Indonesia and India made some progress on negotiations on climate action, inclusion of the African Union in the G20 and the reform of multilateral development banks (MDBs), much more action is essential. Read More Abhivardhan An Indo-Pacific Perspective on AI Safety Analysing varied approaches to AI regulation in key countries, this article explores the challenges and opportunities of AI Safety in the Indo-Pacific region and discusses the need for a coordinated approach to addressing these issues. Read More

< Back CAPT. SARABJEET S PARMAR EDITOR- INDO-PACIFIC ssparmar@csdronline.com Capt. Parmar was commissioned into the Indian Navy on 01 July 1987 and retired on 30 June 2023. He has been a Research Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses and worked in the Indian Navy’s strategic apex level offices where, as Director Strategy was part of the core team published the Indian Navy’s unclassified maritime security strategy document titled Ensuring Secure Seas: Indian Maritime Security Strategy in 2015, carried out regional maritime assessments and completed the doctrine development plan. He was the Executive Director and Senior Fellow at the National Maritime Foundation prior retirement. He has written and spoken extensively on maritime security and strategy issues at various national and international conferences and his main areas of research include national and maritime strategy and security-related aspects in the Indo-Pacific. ssparmar@csdronline.com 123-456-7890

In a career spanning over four decades in the Indian Army, Lieutenant General Raj Shukla has seen extensive service in the field - he commanded a Medium Regiment in the Eastern / Desert Theatres, an Infantry Brigade in Counter Insurgency Operations, an Infantry Division along the Line of Control in the Kashmir Valley and a Pivot Corps along the Western Borders. < Back Lieutenant General Raj Shukla Lieutenant General Raj Shukla has seen extensive service in the field - he commanded a Medium Regiment in the Eastern / Desert Theatres, an Infantry Brigade in Counter Insurgency Operations, an Infantry Division along the Line of Control in the Kashmir Valley and a Pivot Corps along the Western Borders. An alumni of the Defence Services Staff College - Wellington, the College of Defence Management - Secunderabad and the National Defence College - New Delhi, the General Officer has served two tenures at the Military Operations Directorate dealing with Doctrines / Force Structuring and was the Director General, Perspective Planning, addressing issues relating to Military Futures and Force Modernisation. He has also been Commandant of the Indian Army’s prestigious training establishment and think tank - the Army War College. The General officer has participated in 11 th Indo-Pacific Armies Chiefs Conference -XI(IPACC-XI) at Bangkok, Thailand, and is a keen watcher of the Indo-Pacific. A professional aviator, General Shukla has an abiding interest in strategic – military affairs. He has authored close to 50 articles / publications and lectured / participated in more than 150 talks / seminars in India and abroad. As the 22 nd General Officer Commanding- In-Chief of the Indian Army’s Training Command (ARTRAC) the officer made noteworthy contributions to India’s Strategic - Military Futures, Technological Innovation, Professional Military Education and Capacity Building.

< Back Mr Cyriac S Pampackal Cyriac S Pampackal is currently a research scholar at the School of International Relations and Politics, Mahatma Gandhi University, Kottayam, Kerala. He is a former Assistant Professor of Political Science on contract at Mar Athanasius College (Autonomous), Kothamangalam, Kerala. He is a former intern at the Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi. He finished his M.Phil. and Maters in Politics and International Relations from the School of International Relations and Politics, Mahatma Gandhi University, Kottayam, Kerala. He has presented several papers at various international conferences and national seminars. He has published in several journals and has written several book chapters. He is researching India’s maritime policy in the Indo-Pacific region from 2014 to 2024. His other areas of interest are South Asian geopolitics, National Security and Counter-Terrorism, Environmental Security, India’s Foreign Policy, and International Relations Theory. Publications