c29090aa-4dad-42f3-b07e-ef8ab9654604 < All op-eds What do the Midterm Results mean for the US Foreign Policy? Anurag Mishra & Paras Ratna A peculiar feature of American democracy is that it has an election every two years. The midterm elections replace a proportion of the senate members and return some representatives to the House. The constitutional exercise, however, does not have the thunder of a presidential election as it produces little change in the government's policies and shifts no ground in the White House. Given that, foreign policy has little effect on either informing the voters and swinging their choices on the ballot or determining the course of the foreign policy works of the presidential administration either. But the 2022 midterms were considered crucial because they happened under the pall of a European war, an aggressive China, and closer home, galloping inflation. As the Republican Party grapples with its rather abysmal midterm performance, the results sure will impact the domestic and foreign policy front. Despite the odds being heavily favoured for the Republicans to take over Congress, it was projected that the Reds would be gaining a sizeable majority in the House and pipping the Democrats in the Senate. But once all the races were called, the Republicans had to settle for far less than they expected. Although the midterm results defied the expectations of the GOP, they have managed to wrestle back the House of Representatives, leading to a divided Congress as the Democratic Party has retained its majority in the Senate. As the dust of the electoral contest settles down, the article examines the implication of a divided Congress on the Biden administration’s foreign policy initiatives. Blue, Red, and the Purple Patch: Bipartisanism in the US Foreign Policy under Biden It is being argued that the US foreign policy will largely demonstrate relative uniformity/stability amidst an otherwise polarised Congress. There seems to be a consensus between the republicans and democrats regarding the challenges confronting the US primacy in international politics, making it (the foreign policy) the purple patch as the red and blue of American politics seems to be broadly converging. According to the Pew Research survey, both republicans ( 83% ) and democrats ( 68% ) have a negative view of China, signifying a consensus on the China policy. In one of the rare displays of bipartisanship, the American senate approved a competition bill targeting China’s manufacturing last year. The bill attempts to achieve this objective by incentivizing manufacturing in the US and targeting China’s economic/trade malpractices. Other than boosting manufacturing of high-end products like semiconductors, mandating local procurement of materials like steel for infra projects funded by the federal government, and boosting scientific research, it attempts to target China’s trade malpractices by building a coalition with like-minded countries like Japan, and Australia in stopping imports of goods from China that are deemed to violate the Intellectual Property Rights (IPR). The bill further envisages an independent task force to study China’s market manipulation. The bill's passage by 68-32 brings the bipartisan consensus on America’s China policy to the fore. Another important test case of bipartisanship for the Biden administration’s foreign policy will be the US aid to Ukraine in the wake of the Russian invasion. Post GOP’s control of the house, there are speculations about the return of America's first conservatives adversely impacting the US assistance to Ukraine; statements by GOP leaders like Kevin McCarthy , the republican leader and contender for the speaker of the House have added fuel to this speculation. He noted that Republicans wouldn’t support a ‘blank cheque’ for Ukraine. However, there is much more than what meets the eye. GOP leaders like Mitch McConnell and Richard Shelby have strongly argued for US assistance to Ukraine. As of today, Ukraine is the highest recipient of US Aid; this is the first time since the Truman administration’s Marshall plan that any European country has come to occupy the spot. Reportedly, a total of USD 5O billion worth of aid ranging from humanitarian to the military was provided by the US to Ukraine. Ukraine tops the tally for US military assistance; the table below shows the same. Source: CFR, 2022 This shows that American aid to Ukraine enjoys bipartisan support in the house. Recently, a letter signed by thirty ‘ progressive ’ democrats asking President Biden to negotiate with Russia was withdrawn after all-around criticism. These suggest that notwithstanding occasional statements and posturing, the US support to Ukraine in terms of military and humanitarian aid is poised to be steady. This is also evident from the mood of everyday Americans; according to a survey by the Gallup poll, close to 66% of Americans support the Ukrainian resistance against Russia, even at the cost of prolonged war. Indo-Pacific Policy is another significant theatre of the US foreign policy that deserves examination in the wake of midterm results. It is being argued that the GOP’s control of the house could result in a tick in defence spending esp. Domestic defence spending/manufacturing; would be reassuring for US allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific region. Speaking of allies, the senate committee on foreign relations’ approval of the Taiwan policy Act aimed at strengthening the US-Taiwan bilateral ties by bolstering the defence of Taiwan and pledging a commitment of USD 6.5 billion for modernising the Taiwanese military too points to growing convergence on tough US against Chinese aggression. Interestingly, this act was introduced by the GOP leader Michael McCaul alongside 35 other republicans. Therefore, GOP’s control over the house could see a more resolute US foreign policy posturing in the Indo-Pacific, entailing siding/arming allies and partners. Next, speaking of trade, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) unveiled by the Biden administration in the wake of the US withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is viewed as a significant initiative of economic statecraft on the part of the US. Here, it is expected that the GOP could support trade liberalisation arrangements as lower tariff rates for the US goods could benefit farmers-a traditional vote bank of the GOP. This would also help in countering China in overall global trade. It is worth noting that notwithstanding the negativity surrounding trade agreements, the US-Mexico-Canada ( USMC ) free trade agreement received substantial bipartisan support. The inclusion of activistic provisions like stringent labor laws etc., in IPEF is somewhat similar to USMC, which received bipartisan support. Conclusion The semblance of convergence, i.e., the purple patch in an otherwise polarised US politics, suggests that while political parties have their respective interests, the state has its reason. Here, the US state has reason to resist the challenge to its fading unipolar moment from China. The initiatives like the China competitiveness bill and Taiwan policy act, alongside attempts to forge defence partnerships with partners around the Indo-Pacific region, could be interpreted as an attempt to balance China without containment . Given the integration of China into today’s economy, it is a herculean task for a declining hegemon (the US) to outrightly contain China, as, unlike the cold war era, the world today is characterised more by dense economic interaction rather than ideological camps. This has prompted the US, its allies, and its partners to re-think globalisation, especially in the post-covid world. Therefore, we are witnessing the rush to secure supply chains and bring back manufacturing increasingly characterising the US foreign policy- be it Blue or Red. Thus, the competitiveness bill shows a form of economic balancing against China. Next, talks about domestic defence expenditure could be interpreted as a means to balance China’s aggressive intent in the Indo-Pacific. Next, initiatives like the Taiwan policy Act aimed at modernising Taiwan’s defence, followed by attempts to deepen defence cooperation with countries like India, could be interpreted as a means to balance China’s rise by equipping regional powers. Quad- a consortium of four democracies could also be viewed as a balancing instrument against the increasingly assertive China. Thus, the convergence of GOP and democrats in the realm of foreign policy is indicative of the reasons for the US state that transcends party-wise compartmentalization. Previous Next LATEST OP-EDS Dr Dhanasree Jayaram Intersectionality As The Key To Indo-Pacific Climate Action The Indo-Pacific is a dynamic region that faces a multitude of climate vulnerabilities. These climate vulnerabilities intermingle with the region’s social, economic, ecological, political, and cultural fault lines, thereby exacerbating the systemic crisis that the region’s populations are currently facing and will be facing in the future. Applying an intersectional framework is critical for developing a comprehensive understanding of varying vulnerabilities and capacities (that influence the agency of those affected) across societies. Read More Purvaja Modak 2024: Brazil’s G20 Year While Indonesia and India made some progress on negotiations on climate action, inclusion of the African Union in the G20 and the reform of multilateral development banks (MDBs), much more action is essential. Read More Abhivardhan An Indo-Pacific Perspective on AI Safety Analysing varied approaches to AI regulation in key countries, this article explores the challenges and opportunities of AI Safety in the Indo-Pacific region and discusses the need for a coordinated approach to addressing these issues. Read More

< Back Dr Shelly Johny V. Shelly Johny V. is an Associate Professor of Political Science, St. Aloysius College, Kerala. He is also an Honorary Senior Fellow of West Asian and Security Studies, at the Centre for Public Policy Research. He has formerly been an Associate Fellow at the Centre for Air Power Studies, and a Research Assistant at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi. He holds a PhD in West Asian Studies, from Jawaharlal Nehru University. His research interests include maritime security in the Arabian and Red Seas/ Indian Ocean history, contemporary West Asia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and political Islam. He has numerous publications on West Asian affairs, for multiple journals and online media outlets, including the Indian Foreign Affairs Journal, the Air Power Journal, and Social Orbit. Publications The Afghan Taliban and other Jihadi Movements in Afghanistan https://www.cppr.in/articles/the-afghan-taliban-and-other-jihadi-movements-in-afghanistan Increasing threats of a regional conflict between Iran and Israel https://www.cppr.in/articles/conflict-between-iran-and-israel New dispensations in Israel and Iran amid ongoing rivalry: https://www.cppr.in/articles/new-dispensations-in-israel-and-iran-amid-ongoing-rivalry

< Back Ms Shruti Pandalai Shruti Pandalai is a Fellow at the Centre for Military Affairs/ Southeast Asia and Oceania Centre, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. Her research focuses on India’s foreign and security policy, India and evolving geopolitics in the Indo Pacific, China’s sharp power and influence operations, and strategic narratives on the India-China boundary dispute. She holds an MA in International Studies and Diplomacy from the School of Oriental and African Studies, London. Her upcoming publications include ‘India’s Stakes in The Indo Pacific: The Way Forward’, for Routledge India, and ‘Strategic Narratives from India’s Frontiers: What Arunachal thinks of the Boundary Dispute with China’, for MP-IDSA. Publications Blame Games Amidst A Protracted Deadlock—No Thaw In India, China Ties: https://lkyspp.nus.edu.sg/cag/publications/details/china-india-brief-191#.YXjM8aLh6Hs.twitter Why AUKUS is Gaining Acceptance in the Indo Pacific: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/australia-submarine-accepted-aukus-asia-indo-pacific-alliance-china-2206681 Chinese Checkers: Driving Alignments in the Indo-Pacific: https://www.idsa.in/idsanews/chinese-checkers-driving-alignments-in-the-indo-pacific

< Back RIVA GANGULY DAS EDITOR- FOREIGN POLICY riva@csdronline.com Ambassador Das joined the Indian Foreign Service in 1986. She has served as High Commissioner to Bangladesh and Ambassador to Romania, Albania and Moldova and has served as Consul General in Shanghai and New York. She has also done postings in Spain and The Netherlands and has served in various capacities at Headquarters dealing with Nepal, Public Diplomacy, Passport & Consular, and United Nations. She has also served as the Director at the United Nations Economic and Social Affairs Division and participated in environmental negotiations, particularly climate change. She was also the Alternate Permanent Representative of India to the Organization for Prohibition of Chemical Weapons at The Hague. She has also served as Director General, Indian Council for Cultural Relations. Before her retirement she was Secretary (East) in the Ministry of External Affairs. riva@csdronline.com 123-456-7890

< Back Dr Niloy Ranjan Biswas Dr. Niloy Ranjan Biswas is an Associate Professor of the Department of International Relations, University of Dhaka. He has undertaken his studies at the University of Dhaka, Bangladesh, The George Washington University, Washington DC, USA, and City, University of London, London, UK. In 2016, he completed his Ph.D. in International Politics from City, University of London. He was a recipient of the Fulbright Fellowship (2010-12) to pursue the second Master’s degree in Security Policy Studies at The George Washington University, Washington DC. In 2017, he successfully completed the United States Institute of Peace (USIP)-Resolve Fellowship to conduct post-doctoral research on community policing and its challenges in preventing violent extremism. In 2020, Mahanirban Calcutta Research Group (CRG) offered him a visiting research fellowship to conduct an empirical study on Rohingya refugees and international protection mechanisms. Dr. Biswas has several academic and policy publications to his credit. He has written extensively on regional cooperation in Indo-pacific, South and Southeast Asia, deradicalization and preventing violent extremism, refugees and forced migration, and South Asian regional contributions to United Nations peace support endeavours. His most recent articles are published in National Security (VIF), Asian Journal of Comparative Politics, The Round Table: The Commonwealth Journal of International Affairs, International Peacekeeping (Taylor & Francis), Journal of International Peacekeeping (Brill), Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies (BISSS) Journal and Mirpur Papers (Defense Services Command and Staff College, Bangladesh). Dr. Biswas is an adjunct Associate Professor at the Bangladesh University of Professionals. He frequently visits Bangladesh Foreign Service Academy, Bangladesh Institute of Peace Support Operations and Training (BIPSOT), National Defense College, Defense Services Command and Staff College, and Bangladesh Ansar & VDP Academy as a guest speaker and subject matter expert. Publications

< Back Amba Wattal Research Assistant Amba is a Research Assistant at the Council for Strategic and Defense Research. Amba holds a Master’s in International Studies from Symbiosis International University, Pune. She has a Master’s in English Literature from Delhi University and a PG Diploma in Human Rights. India’s Neighbourhood Policy and South Asia are the domains that attract her interest.

< Back Mr Vidyadhar Anand Prabhudesai Vidyadhar Prabhudesai is co-founder of LeadCap Trust which impacted 10 million youth, and LeadCap Ventures which consults for governments like Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq and international institutions like UN, World Economic Forum, World Bank and USAID. He is also the Founding Curator of Global Shapers Community of the World Economic Forum and Fellow of United Nations, Royal Society of Arts and Ford Foundation. He is recipient of Thane Gaurav, 2nd highest civilian honour by Municipal Corporation of Thane City. Prabhudesai is the Global Ambassador of Peace and Sustainable Development Goals. He was awarded the World Bank Prize for developing innovative solution for addressing youth unemployment. Vidyadhar was listed among EU-India 40 under 40 leaders and top 100 global influencers. He is a distinguished alumnus of Thunderbird School of Global Management and Aegis School of Business. Publications

< Back Dr Uma Purushothaman Uma Purushothaman is currently an Assistant Professor at the Department of International Relations and Politics at the School of Global Studies, Central University of Kerala, and was formerly a Research Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, and a Research Associate at the United Service Institution of India. She holds a PhD in International Studies at the Centre for Canadian, US and Latin American Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University. Besides authoring numerous book chapters, she edited the book, ‘Globalisation and Identity: Perspectives from India and Russia’ for ORF, New Delhi and co-authored, ‘Trends in Russia-China Relations: Implications for India’, also for ORF. With a focus on politics, foreign policy, and security, her research articles have been published in journals such as India Quarterly, International Studies, Journal of Peace Studies and Strategic Analysis. Publications COVID-19 Second Wave | Challenges to India’s global reputation: https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/opinion/covid-19-second-wave-challenges-to-indias-global-reputation-6852231.html Israel-Palestine Conflict | The world reacts with predictable indifference: https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/opinion/israel-palestine-conflict-the-world-reacts-with-predictable-indifference-6922401.html Why RIC is as important to India as JAI and BRICS: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/why-ric-is-as-important-to-india-as-jai-and-brics-46213/

< Back Dr Bhagya Senaratne Dr Bhagya Senaratne is a Postdoctoral Fellow of Global Asia at the Center for Global Asia, NYU Shanghai. Previously, she was a Senior Lecturer (U.S. Associate Professor) in the Department of Strategic Studies, at General Sir John Kotelawala Defence University, Sri Lanka. Her research at the Center for Global Asia focuses on the BRI in South Asia. Her research and teaching intersects Foreign Policy Analysis, Geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific, Strategic Communications and Maritime Security. Dr Senaratne has served in several editorial boards such as the Journal of Defence & Policy Analysis and the Defence and Security Journal published of which she was the Editor-in-Chief in 2021. She co-edited Pakistan-Sri Lanka Relations: A Story of Friendship in 2017 and Sri Lanka’s Post-Independence Defence Policy: Past, Present and Future Projections in 2023. She has podcasts with the National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR), USA and the Indo-Pacific Circle (IPC), New Delhi and writes to the Stimson Center’s South Asian Voices on Sri Lanka’s foreign policy. Publications Senaratne, B. (2024, May 10). Sri Lankan elections and an Indian Ocean tug-of-war. Daily FT. https://www.ft.lk/columns/Sri-Lankan-elections-and-an-Indian-Ocean-tug-of-war/4-761616 Senaratne, B. (2023). Sri Lanka’s Tightrope of Non-alignment, Economic Compulsions, and Diplomacy. In Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy (Ed.), US-China Competition: Perspectives from the Neighbourhood. ORF Special Report No. 218, December 2023, Observer Research Foundation. Senaratne, B. (2023). “U.S. relations with Sri Lanka: A Case of Impulsiveness, Missed Opportunities and Strategic Competition”. In O. Turner, W. Aslam, & N. Nymalm (Eds.), The Routledge Handbook of US policy in the Indo-Pacific (pp. 300-314). London: Routledge. DOI: 10.4324/9781003018322-25

23847be1-eec8-4342-bd9e-13e81f0d71a7 < All op-eds Indo-Pacific formulation and ‘sea-changes’ for India Ms. Shereen Sherif In the light of the Indo-Pacific gaining significance in geo-political conception governing strategic choices of countries within and beyond the geographical expanse of the Indian and Pacific Oceans, it is no doubt that India has been gaining an increasing role in the security architecture involving the region. With its predominant maritime thrust, Indo-Pacific merits an analysis of its effects upon its eponymous ocean and the role of India. Growing salience of Indo-Pacific is a result of, among other things, the changing strategic, security and economic interactions in the region with a pivotal role accorded to India and the Indian Ocean. Historically, Indian Ocean has been a major site of competition and contestation among different stakeholder countries for political power and economic resources. During the colonial times, the Western imperial powers controlled vast majority of the Indian Ocean littoral, deciding much of the internal political and external defence policies of the colonies. A case in point is the role of the Royal Navy’s control of Indian Ocean and their extended influence on all the entry and exit points, reducing the Indian Ocean to a British lake. The end of the colonial era heralded a new geopolitical order resulting in the entry of new players in the field. The British withdrawal from the East of Suez in 1960s generated a debate about the supposed power vacuum in the region. The Afro-Asian countries’ call for maintaining the Indian Ocean as a peace zone was ineffective in restricting the entry of United States and Soviet Union’s into the Indian Ocean. Great power presence and their politics in the Indian Ocean during the cold war period assumed competitive dimensions, which may be considered a transformative event. The end of Cold War, the emerging multi polarity in Asia and the resultant power shift from West to East further pushed a reconsideration of geo-politics in the region with an initial focus on Asia-Pacific and a gradual shift to Indo-Pacific. While ostensibly, the reconfiguration of Asia-Pacific into Indo-Pacific accords India and the Indian Ocean a central role in global security, bringing India into the foreground is a direct outcome of the strategic calculus of different stakeholder countries’ with their security and economic interests tied to the region. The recent transformation is also reflective of India’s potential as a counterweight to a growing China. It is clear from the above that contingent on political, strategic and economic imperatives, geopolitical frameworks have undergone transformations throughout history and countries around the world resort to various mechanisms to strengthen their reach in a region of strategic prominence. While the nomenclature and general functioning within the framework of the Indo-Pacific points to a significant economic and military role played by India in the strategic grouping/theatre, the significance of the Indo-Pacific is also a function of domestic and international politics and economic considerations of other nations in the region. The responses of two major powers in the region, Russia and China, is crucial in determining the future course of action within the geo-strategic set up as any alterations in the balance of power in any sub region will have a direct bearing on the rest of the grouping. Previous Next LATEST OP-EDS Dr Dhanasree Jayaram Intersectionality As The Key To Indo-Pacific Climate Action The Indo-Pacific is a dynamic region that faces a multitude of climate vulnerabilities. These climate vulnerabilities intermingle with the region’s social, economic, ecological, political, and cultural fault lines, thereby exacerbating the systemic crisis that the region’s populations are currently facing and will be facing in the future. Applying an intersectional framework is critical for developing a comprehensive understanding of varying vulnerabilities and capacities (that influence the agency of those affected) across societies. Read More Purvaja Modak 2024: Brazil’s G20 Year While Indonesia and India made some progress on negotiations on climate action, inclusion of the African Union in the G20 and the reform of multilateral development banks (MDBs), much more action is essential. Read More Abhivardhan An Indo-Pacific Perspective on AI Safety Analysing varied approaches to AI regulation in key countries, this article explores the challenges and opportunities of AI Safety in the Indo-Pacific region and discusses the need for a coordinated approach to addressing these issues. Read More

Through most of his 40 year illustrious career General Hasnain has served in turbulent environment and hot spots. From Sri Lanka to Siachen Glacier, from the North East to Jammu & Kashmir (J&K), and in UN operations from Mozambique to Rwanda, he has seen it all in crucial appointments. < Back Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd) Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd) served seven tours in J&K, decorated in almost of them and knows the J&K conflict comprehensively. He commanded the Indian Army’s Srinagar based 15 Corps and is today one of the foremost writers and analysts on J&K, Pakistan, Middle East and transnational extremist violence. He is a much sought after speaker and writes for major Indian newspapers – The Times of India, The Indian Express, The Hindu, Deccan Chronicle and The Asian Age, besides being a regular participant in television debates on mainstream television. With a strong academic background from Sherwood College Nainital, St Stephen’s College Delhi, the Royal College of Defence Studies, Kings College London and the Asia Pacific Centre for Security Studies, Hawaii, he has been at the forefront of encouraging the adoption of the US initiated Scholar Warrior concept in the Indian Army. He has spoken at the Lee Kwan Yu School for Public Policy, the Rajaratnam School for International Studies and the Indian Institute for South Asian Studies, all at Singapore. He has also spoken at the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS), London. He is associated with the Vivekanand International Foundation and Centre for Joint Warfare Studies, as Distinguished Fellow and is on the Governing Council of the Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA) and Institute of Peace & Conflict Studies (IPCS). He speaks on National Security at various military, civil services and corporate institutions with a view to enhance India’s strategic culture. He has recently visited Iran and was at the forefront of neutralizing Pakistani influence operations in that country. On 13 Jul 2018 The President of India appointed Lt Gen Hasnain as Chancellor of the Central University of Kashmir. Gen Hasnain has six decorations awarded by the President for India and two by the Army Chief. He superannuated from the Indian Army in Jul 2013 after 40 years of active service.

Dr. Bec Strating is the Executive Director of La Trobe Asia and a Senior Lecturer in Politics and International Relations, in the Department of Politics, Media and Philosophy at La Trobe University in Melbourne. B.Strating@latrobe.edu.au < Back Dr. Bec Strating Dr. Bec Strating is the Director of La Trobe Asia and an Associate Professor in Politics and International Relations in the Department of Politics, Media and Philosophy. Her research focuses on maritime disputes in Asia and Australian foreign and defence policy. She has written three monographs, most recently "Defending the Maritime Rules-Based Order" (2020). In 2019, she was awarded an Asian Studies Visiting Fellowship to research at the East West Center in Washington DC for three months. She was also a visiting affiliate fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore, an affiliated researcher at Georgetown University and is currently a non-visiting fellow at the Perth US Asia Centre. She has co-edited two special issues and multiple journal articles and book chapters. In 2019, her second monograph, The Post-Colonial Security Dilemma, was published with the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in 2019. In 2018, she was awarded the prestigious Boyer Prize by the Australian Institute of International Affairs for best article published in the Australian Journal of International Affairs in 2017 for her paper ‘Timor-Leste’s Foreign Policy Approach to the Timor Sea: Pipeline or Pipedream?’ She has written over 70 commentary pieces for organisations such as Lowy Institute, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, The Conversation, East Asia Forum, New Mandela, Asia Global Online and Australian Outlook. She regularly provides comment to media including the ABC, the Australian and Sydney Morning Herald. She has testified in Australian federal parliament as an expert witness. B.Strating@latrobe.edu.au